Reference: KUOW Weekday broadcast 26 Sept 2005
- Hurricanes pickup heat from deep layers of warm water esp greater than 80° F.
- Hurricanes cool oceans.
- An upward trend in hurricane energy is correlated to sea surface temperature (SST).
- Hurricanes can be thought of as a spinning top pushed by upper level flow.
- Atlantic hurricanes are = 11% of world total.
- U.S. landfall hurricanes are < 1/500th of world total. Small sample means these are best treated as random events.
- Forecasts for hurricane track are pretty good but intensity forecasts aren't.
- Tools for research: satellites, buoys, planes, "ground" stations.
- Uncertainty is an important parameter in science.
- Climate data must be looked at statistically!
- Models need both atmospheric and ocean data (down to 200 m).
- AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has been on an upswing during the last ten years.
- PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in the North Pacific.
- Global circulation models can go out 50 - 100 years.
- Models predict substantially decreased snowpack in Cascade mountains.