Hurricane Notes

Reference: KUOW Weekday broadcast 26 Sept 2005

  1. Hurricanes pickup heat from deep layers of warm water esp greater than 80° F.
  2. Hurricanes cool oceans.
  3. An upward trend in hurricane energy is correlated to sea surface temperature (SST).
  4. Hurricanes can be thought of as a spinning top pushed by upper level flow.
  5. Atlantic hurricanes are = 11% of world total.
  6. U.S. landfall hurricanes are < 1/500th of world total. Small sample means these are best treated as random events.
  7. Forecasts for hurricane track are pretty good but intensity forecasts aren't.
  8. Tools for research: satellites, buoys, planes, "ground" stations.
  9. Uncertainty is an important parameter in science.
  10. Climate data must be looked at statistically!
  11. Models need both atmospheric and ocean data (down to 200 m).
  12. AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has been on an upswing during the last ten years.
  13. PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in the North Pacific.
  14. Global circulation models can go out 50 - 100 years.
  15. Models predict substantially decreased snowpack in Cascade mountains.